Every day In our life we come across various kinds of forecasts and predictions, but how reliable they are?
What incentive does this forecaster would be having?
Are they mere attention seekers?
The problem is these so-called experts enjoy free rein with very negligible negative consequences.
If they strike it right, they are lucky and get publicity.
If they go completely off, they face no penalties - either in terms of financial or in terms of their reputation.
This win-win situation virtually proves as an incentive for them to churn out one after another prediction.
In fact, the more forecasts they generate, the more they become coincidentally correct.
In fact, it is imperative to check the ratio of predictions made by the predictor, how many predictions went wrong out of how many predictions he made.
The most important is to judge what is predictable and what is not.
With the changing scenario, we get different predictors - whether it is for crude oil price or stock market rise and fall or real estate market trend, etc..
There is a saying " Predicting a future us easy...getting it right is difficult."
We have a few predictions which turn out to be right.
So, use your judgment, how far you want to go with it!!
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