Outcome prejudice'
We tend to evaluate decisions based on outcomes than by the process.
Let us consider an illustration:
There were 3 Heart surgeons named A, B, and C.
All of them were competent enough and quite dependable.
Once they were put to a test.
They were asked to perform 2 heart surgeries each and they will be evaluated based on the outcomes they will generate.
Surgeon A did the surgeries, no one died.
Surgeon B did his part of surgeries, one patient, become critical, and the other survived.
Surgeon C did his part of surgeries, both patients died.
What inference can be derived from this?
From the outcomes, naturally, Surgeon A is more reliable and dependable. However, it should not be the case because the sampling don't for evaluation is not large enough to derive any strong conclusion.
Moreover, only doctors who are expert in that field, having sufficient knowledge can make conclusion based on operating procedures, the conditions at the time of surgery and patients condition before surgery.
In short, we need to assess the process and not the result.
It means, never judge a decision purely based on results, especially when randomness or external factor has major role to play in it.
We tend to evaluate decisions based on outcomes than by the process.
Let us consider an illustration:
There were 3 Heart surgeons named A, B, and C.
All of them were competent enough and quite dependable.
Once they were put to a test.
They were asked to perform 2 heart surgeries each and they will be evaluated based on the outcomes they will generate.
Surgeon A did the surgeries, no one died.
Surgeon B did his part of surgeries, one patient, become critical, and the other survived.
Surgeon C did his part of surgeries, both patients died.
What inference can be derived from this?
From the outcomes, naturally, Surgeon A is more reliable and dependable. However, it should not be the case because the sampling don't for evaluation is not large enough to derive any strong conclusion.
Moreover, only doctors who are expert in that field, having sufficient knowledge can make conclusion based on operating procedures, the conditions at the time of surgery and patients condition before surgery.
In short, we need to assess the process and not the result.
It means, never judge a decision purely based on results, especially when randomness or external factor has major role to play in it.
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